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1994-05-02
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<text>
<title>
Denmark: Economic Policy
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
Economic Policy and Trade Practices: Denmark
</hdr>
<body>
<p>1. General Policy Framework
</p>
<p> An industrialized market economy dependent on imported raw
materials, coal and petroleum coke, Denmark has pursued a
liberal trade policy to maintain supply security. The standard
of living is one of the ten highest in the world. There has been
substantial progress in correcting some of the fundamental
structural imbalances which plagued the economy throughout the
1980s. The recurrent and large balance of payments (BOP)
deficits shifted into surplus in 1990, a situation expected to
continue. This has allowed Denmark to begin to reduce gradually
its foreign debt. The public sector deficit in 1991, although
larger than expected, has been reduced to about 1.5 percent of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared to 5.5 percent of GDP in
1982, when the first of a series of non-socialist coalition
governments took office. The annual inflation rate over the same
period has been reduced from 10 percent to 2.5 percent. The
major remaining problems are the high level of unemployment, and
the second highest tax burden among OECD countries. Although
self-sufficient in oil and gas, Denmark is not richly endowed
with natural resources, and most of the Danish GDP results from
value added in industry and in the production of services. More
than one-quarter of the labor force is employed in the public
sector, most of them providing services under the highly
developed Danish social security system. Denmark has been a
member of the European Communities (EC) since 1973 and is
therefore subject to EC legislation in a variety of fields. The
EC common customs tariff is fully applied. Denmark has
implemented the largest number of EC directives of any member
state leading up to the single market by the end of 1992.
</p>
<p> Following several years of near economic stagnation, the
Danish economy is now showing improvement. The GDP in 1990
increased 2.1 percent, led mostly by strong export sector
performance. Prospects for 1991 are that GDP will increase by
close to two percent. The improved growth rate is the result of
a revival in private consumption and continued strong exports
(due in part to the German reunification). The result has been
a sharp improvement in the balance of payments (BOP), which in
1990 saw a surplus (almost 10 billion kroner) for the first time
since 1963. The surplus for 1991 is projected to drop slightly
to nine billion kroner, due to increased development assistance
payments and contributions to the EC.
</p>
<p> Since the center-right coalition governments headed by Prime
Minister Schlueter first took office in 1982, their goal of
reducing public spending and the central government budget
deficit has been generally accomplished. The budget drifted back
into deficits after surpluses were achieved in 1986 and 1987,
but at more manageable levels (i.e., ranging between two and
three percent of GDP, compared to 10 percent in 1982). For 1991,
the deficit is projected to be 36 billion kroner, or 4.3
percent of GDP, due to continued growth in unemployment
expenditures and stagnant tax revenues. The central government's
deficit in 1991 will be financed entirely by domestic sales of
government bonds and drawing on the Central Bank. Foreign debt
will be reduced by advance payments on the principal. At the end
of 1991 the central government's total debt is projected to
stand at 523 billion kroner, of which 17 percent will have been
borrowed abroad, compared to 25 percent at the end of 1990. The
debt will also largely be held in currencies tied together in
the European Monetary System, rather than in dollars.
</p>
<p> The public sector as a whole, including local governments
which have their own taxing authority, has generally had a
budget surplus as local governments' budget surpluses have more
than offset the central government's deficit. However, local
governments are now also facing a tight financial situation, and
it is projected that public sector budgets as a whole will show
a deficit of about 1.5 percent of GDP in 1991.
</p>
<p> Monetary policy is the responsibility of the Central Bank,
which in principle is an independent institution. The primary
tools used to regulate money supply are sales and purchases of
bonds, and adjustments of conditions for commercial bank
deposits with and borrowing from the Central Bank. For a long
period the Danish interest rate has been kept well above that
of its neighboring countries, especially Germany, in order to
finance the recurrent BOP deficit. However, as a result of the
Danish BOP surplus and the low inflation rate, the interest
differential between Denmark and Germany in the second half of
1990 narrowed to about one percent. For the first time since the
Deutsche mark was created in 1948, the Danish six-months
money-market rate in October 1991 dropped below the German rate.
</p>
<p> These developments have placed Denmark among the economic
"hard core" EC countries and have triggered a significant change
in the previous "reluctant" Danish attitude towards the EC
Monetary and Economic Union (EMU). Denmark is now one of the EC
member states that most strongly advocates the creation of the
EMU with its attendant common currency and European Central
Bank. Denmark supports a Central Bank unit with the primary
objective of ensuring price stability, while supporting the
EC's general economic policy.
</p>
<p>2. Exchange Rate Policies
</p>
<p> Denmark is a member of the European Monetary System (EMS),
which has helped the Government maintain its stable krone
policy. Since 1982, the Government has successfully opposed
attempts to solve Denmark's economic problems through exchange
rate adjustments, i.e., a devaluation of the krone. In August
1991 the trade-weighted krone rate was three percent lower than
in August 1990, due almost entirely to increases in the values
of the dollar and the yen. Following erratic developments in the
size of foreign exchange reserves in 1988 and 1989, reserves
have since been stable ranging between 55 and 65 billion kroner.
The value of the krone against the U.S. dollar in September 1991
was about nine percent lower than in September 1990. This may
have some negative impact on U.S. exports to Denmark in the
second half of 1991.
</p>
<p>3. Structural Policies
</p>
<p> Despite the Government's success in partially resolving
Denmark's structural imbalances, a number of problems remain in
connection with the implementation of the EC Single Market on
January 1, 1993.
</p>
<p> In the rigid and heavily unionized Danish labor market,
changes are needed to improve the geographic and sectoral
mobility of labor in spite of present high unemployment. The
Government is proposing extensive labor market reform, including
a tightening of the present generous conditions for receiving
unemployment benefits and transferring two-thirds of the
financing of the unemployment insurance system to employers and
employees. At present the central government pays about
two-thirds of the costs. It is not clear that the Government
will be able to gain sufficient support in the Parliament to
pass these changes. However, the Government projects that
100,000 new jobs will be created before 1996, particularly in
the services sector, leading to a one-third reduction in
unemployment.
</p>
<p> Danes generally concede that the tax system must be
overhauled to stimulate private savings and investment, and to
reduce the black economy, which has grown to between 5 and 10
percent of GDP. However, the Government has been unable to pass
proposals to bring the high Danish marginal income tax rates
closer to those of the other EC countries. In addition, the
structure of the Danish income tax system is significantly
different from those of the other EC countries, as Danish
employers pay practically no social security taxes. (By contrast
German industrial employers pay about 20 percent of total wage
cos